Demographic Winter

Demographic winter refers to this phenomenon of a global decline in births. Imagine this snow-covered landscape where falling rate snowflakes gently fall but become fewer and fewer each year.

Here are a few key points about this phenomenon:

• The Decline of Fertility Rates: Like a snowman melting away in the sun, some countries are having their fertility rates melt away. The accepted norm is that the average woman – or child-raising couple, for that matter – should bring 2.1 children into the world. Fall below that level and the nation face challenges. Today, places like Monaco, Italy, and Japan are recording some of the lowest fertility rates. Italy, for instance, averages around 1.28 children per woman. This means that Italy’s population will be greatly diminished by 2050.
• Aging Populations: Imagine a snow globe where the snow settles to the bottom; this is an aging population. As birth rates decline, native populations grow older. By 2030, nearly one-third of the labor force will be more than 50 years of age. There is no stampede of younger workers to fill the gaps of retirees, at least partly because so many have chosen not to raise families or otherwise participate fully in society. This pattern will have implications in terms of recruitment into a number of sectors, including the armed services and public agencies.

• Geopolitics Consequences: An aging and low-fertility population has consequences for continents’ military power balance. In terms of the war in Ukraine, the balance of powers in Asia and Africa depend on the same demography. It is like a game of Risk, but with more births counted rather than fewer dice rolls.

The reasons for demographic winter:

• Low Religious Observance: Countries with low religious observance see lower birth rates and higher abortion rates.
• Generous Social Benefits: When social benefits get so high that they replace family support (which includes the gift of life), it has an impact on birth rates.
• Mandate of Totalitarianism: Historical factors matter too. A few countries continue to cope with the legacy of totalitarian regimes.
• Consumption Taxes: Heavy consumption taxes, which discourage investment in “human capital,” can also contribute to demographic winter.

Demographic Winter in India:

• According to Lancet Study (by Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation – IHME) of 195 countries, India’s population will peak to 160 cr by 2048 and then reduce by 2100 to around 109cr.
• World’s population will peak in 2064, at 9.7 billion and then decline by 2100, to 8.7 billion from the 2064 peak.
• India’s TFR is already below 2.08 in 2019.
• As per the fifth round of NFHS conducted during the year 2019-21, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0 children per woman, resulting in the achievement of the replacement level of fertility, which is 2.1 children per woman.

Government attempts to control population:

Mission Parivar Vikas aims to improve family planning services in 7 states where the combined total fertility rate (TFR – the number of children a woman have in her lifetime) constitutes 44% of the country’s population.

• The target of the government is to reach the replacement level fertility level of 2.1 by the year 2025.
• Key focus will be on improving access to contraceptives, building capacity (service providers), etc, along with close monitoring and implementation.

National Population Stabilisation Fund/Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh (JSK): it is an autonomous body under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), constituted on the recommendations of the National Commission of Population.

• Its mandate to meet the unmet need for contraception, and reproductive and child health.
• It is aimed at achieving population stabilisation at a level by 2045, as mandated by national population Policy 2000.

Depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA)/Depo: It is an artificial injectable contraceptive (progesterone), which can provide long term (12-14 weeks) contraception to a woman. The injection stops the ovaries from the process of ovulation and increased the thickness of cervical wall so that male discharge cannot enter the uterus during intercourse.

Source:

(1) Shrinking populations and falling birth rates could be worse than.

• https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/population-fertility-birth-rate-falling-ageing-demographic-winter-b1139330.html.

(2) How Do Nations Choose “Demographic Winter”? Is America Doing So?.

• https://eppc.org/publication/how-do-nations-choose-a%c2%80%c2%9cdemographic-wintera%c2%80%c2%9d-is-america-doing-so/.

(3) https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1847431

Understand Demographic Winter in UPSC Current Affairs with insights by Vikas Sir. Key topic for UPSC preparation. Learn more here.